Saturday, January 1, 2022

Pattern Language Used on Social Problems - Business Externalities

I  think it should be possible to address social problems using "Pattern Language" techniques. Here is a simple example that includes a serious proposal. I posted this to Facebook a couple years ago, but I might start using this framework here.

Problem:
Businesses externalize costs to save money and increase profits. That is, they force others to pay for their choices and actions. Examples of externalized costs include: government subsidized wages, pollution... These externalized costs must be born by someone, often society at large.
Solution:
Force businesses to pay externalized costs.
Initial Steps:
Choose a particular large externalized cost that is directly affecting a large number of people and force internalization.
The Carrot/Stick
The stick can be forced redistribution of profits. To protect new companies and marginal businesses, penalties should not accumulate indefinitely. Suppose the limit was one year without carryover. If the business owed $80,000 for externalities last year and this year it was $20,000, paying $20,000 this year would clear your externality debt. This requires safeguards to prevent gaming the system.
If a business is identified as having an unpaid externality debt the business would be restricted in how any profits are accumulated and distributed:
- No pay, entire package, for anyone in the company (e.g. the CEO) could more than 25 times the median (not mean) wage for the company. Any amount over 25x would be taxed at 100%. The number 25 is not arbitrary. Over time, investments can be counted on to return at least 4% per year after inflation. Suppose a CEO invested an amount 25 times the median wage for their business. They could withdraw the median wage from their investment every year, forever, without touching the principle.
- No investor returns until the externality is paid. This means no dividends, no stock buybacks, no acquisitions of other businesses, no investments unrelated to the current business. Profits would have to be distributed inside the company (buying new equipment, hiring new people, increasing worker pay...).
- No accumulation of cash more than some amount calculated from the debt. If you have tons of cash, you should pay your debt.
Business can continue forcing costs on others but they are limited in how they can distribute profits. This is not ideal but it is much better than the current situation.
Initial Externality Proposal:
Let workers keep what they have earned.
Wages are often subsidized by government. Government provides a safety net in the form of SNAP, medicaid, AFDC, WIC, TANF... Effectively, when businesses do not pay a living wage government steps in to make up the difference. That is, businesses externalize the cost of wages by having government tax everyone to make up the difference.
The profits of a company come from a number of sources (workers, capital investment...), but rank and file workers are a big source. If the wage at a company cannot support life, then the company is too poor to pay the CEO or investors large amounts.
Each company can receive an externality bill for their portion of safety net programs affecting their workers. For example, If a 10 hour a week worker receives $400/month in SNAP (food stamps), the company is responsible for roughly 1/4 of that amount because they work 1/4 time. That is an externality bill of around $100/month.
Attacking subsidized pay encourages higher wages and reduces the amount government has to spend on the social safety net.

Monday, November 22, 2021

On Being a Parent

 I was asked to write something about parenting. I don't know if I'm qualified, but I do have experience. I first became a parent a month after my twentieth birthday. I am now toward the end of my sixth decade. That means I have been a parent for more than twice as long as I have not been a parent. I have four children and a large number of grandchildren. This note reflects my aspirations. Sometimes I don't succeed.

I was young, but fortunate, as a first time parent. Both Sarah and I are readers. I also have a tendency to question whatever I am told and try to reason from first principles. Sarah had been working in a good day care center for some time and has a natural affinity for young children. So we read about child rearing. Not just current books, but older ones as well. It became apparent that child rearing is as faddish as all other aspects of culture. This was both troubling and freeing. Troubling because, in a deep sense, no one knows what they are doing. Freeing because reasonable human beings keep being reared despite the fashions. As a species we instinctually know what to do as long as we follow our better nature. We want to touch and hold our children. We want to see them laughing and happy. We want them to be strong, independent, and fearless. Most of us understand that if a child is unhappy, there is a reason for it. We may never find a cause, but there is one. That means an unhappy child needs and deserves love, support, and compassion even if their pain is caused by the trivial or even nothing we can discern.

Children grow to be adults, but they are not adults. They are unreasonable bundles of emotions, actions and reactions. They can sometimes be persuaded by argument, but they are not rational. They are exquisitely and effectively responsive to their environment. Children will mold themselves to get what they need from their environment. They also have all the normal human instincts and emotions: Empathy and cruelty, a sense of fairness and unfairness, love and hate, rewards and revenge. It is important to remember that they respond to the actual environment, not the stated environment. Parents may talk about love, fairness, and respect. If they display disappointment, favoritism, and criticism, the children will respond to the actual environment not the stated one.

Come to think of it, adults are much the same. The difference is that we have a greater mental capacity to examine the world and form rational plans. We also have a more developed capacity to act in accordance with what we think rather than what we feel. As an adult I may feel rage, but if that will not help the situation I will act calmly and unemotionally to make things better.

One very, very, important difference between adults and children is that children are easily distracted. When distracted, they often forget what happened before. My first child, September, was colicky as an infant. That just means she was fussy and often unhappy. That is when I learned that intense physical actions could erase her emotions. When she was fussy I would sometimes hold her high and let her fall, always in my hands, for a few feet. Her internal reaction was basically "what the hell just happened". Processing the experience often erased her previous unhappiness and she could be re-engaged with something happier. It also started me on a path of raw physicality. By the time she was nine months old I would take her and throw her high in the air and catch her on the way down. We both enjoyed it. On the now outlawed spinners in parks (maybe 15 feet across with metal tubes to hold on to) I would push sets of children just as fast as they could take. You had to watch how tight their grips were and whether anyone was turning green, but it was great fun.

For older children, the same lesson applies. When a child is behaving badly you can lecture them and punish them in various ways. However, they simply lack the mental capacity to reflect and change behaviour. A quick explanation is important so they understand how you view the world, but for most incidents after you have explained you can simply erase the situation. I find humor, games, and even the worst mock magic tricks effective. Recently I took an unhappy child who was effectively being punished for bad behavior with siblings and made things ok again by pretending to take a coin from behind their ear. I can't do such a trick, but I made it so apparent that I was disappointed with my repeated failures that it was funny to them. This erased the distress and they could go back to the family without causing additional trouble. The siblings share a short attention span, so the incident was forgotten and reintegration possible. If the punishment had been likely to be effective, I would have left the kid alone. But self reflection is not a strong point for children and I think a wiser course of action is to make the immediate situation better and get back to normal as quickly as possible. In this case, about two minutes.

Once on a family road trip we ran into a blizzard. This did not please my one year old(?) grandchild in his car seat who wanted us to stop and who wanted to be breast fed. Stopping seemed out of the question if we ever wanted to make it home. I drove for maybe six hours as the toddler screamed continuously. Everyone was as kind and patient as we could be with him. We talked and tried to explain, but he did not stop screaming. This made my driving, in a blizzard, on a highway with spun out cars littering the shoulder, "difficult". I must say though, I was impressed with both his stamina and force of will. For a while afterwords I called him The Dark Lord. He has turned into a fine young adult who has learned to control himself better. But I think he still has that underlying determination and force of will.

In that car, there were three generations of people of mixed ages. I like to believe we all modeled and reinforced important lessons: The focus and self control necessary to accomplish what needed to be done in spite of adversity. The ability to act calmly in an emotionally fraught situation. And most importantly, the compassion needed to deal with a child who was, quite reasonably, completely distraught about their situation.

Stories are important. It is how we, as humans, approach life. We tell ourselves stories of who we are, and who we are not. I tell myself the story that I am an honest, intelligent, capable person. I tell myself this, and believe it, despite the fact that I can recite a litany of my deceits, embarrassingly stupid actions, and incompetence. Having this litany is important in being honest to myself. It does not change my view that, on the whole, I am honest, intelligent, and capable. It is something I aspire to even if I don't always accomplish it.

As a parent we have the opportunity, through our actions, to form the inner story a child tells themselves. If they are constantly accused of deception and bad intent, they will form the inner story that they are deceitful and wicked and will behave accordingly. If they are praised for effort and encouraged in kindness, they will form the inner story that they are hard working and kind.

My father's mother, an irish catholic, raised nine boys. Much of it effectively as a single, poverty stricken, mother because her husband developed parkinson's disease and was totally disabled. She was revered by her children and by many of her peers. She said the way to create honest children was to always believe them, even when lies were apparent. That way they understood that the very air around them was filled with an expectation of honesty. It worked. Her children were sometimes SOBs, but they were almost invariably honest. And, as it turned out, invariably intellectually rigorous. They passed these traits to my generation.

I often say that when a child is just born, they rely on us for everything. By the time they are forty five, we hope they rely on us for almost nothing. The art of parenting is managing the transition between the two stages. One important aspect of the transition is agency. Agency is the notion that you can choose a course of action and see it through. As parents I think we should give every child as much agency as possible while still protecting them from irreparable harm. To show them that even adults were children and did things that were not great, I tell young kids stories about times I did embarrassing things. A favorite seems to be the time, when I was about four, I got up from my nap without my mother knowing and walked to the beach (a few blocks away) NAKED. I was brought home in a police car.

In my mind, the statement that I have four children is not quite accurate. For me, any child in my presence is my child. In the presence of a child, I am not important. The child is the important one and what I am thinking and feeling takes a back seat to what they are thinking and feeling. I think this is reasonable because, given the normal course of events, they will be here after I am dead and gone. They will be able to affect the world long after I cannot, and they are the repository of any small legacy of humanity that I hope to leave behind.

Life is often difficult, unfair, and disappointing for each of us. I firmly believe that if anything is going to allow us to improve our lives, it is compassion. For me, that means putting myself aside and trying to understand others. Once we understand, forgiveness is often possible. This includes compassion for ourselves. That does not mean that we condone actions, just that understanding is necessary for correction, change, and redemption.

Compassion is especially important around children. It not only makes their lives better and happier, it also makes for an emotionally supportive environment. That environment allows them to grow into better people.

My basic advice to other parents is this. Compassion begins with putting aside your needs, your emotions, your desire for a different world. As the Buddhists say, "Comparisons are odious". Look at your current children, your current situation. Understand it, and make it better. Do this with as little regard for yourself as you can manage. You have a lot to juggle and a lot of responsibilities. Sometimes when the toddler is screaming, you just have to tend to business and drive the car. Remember, you are the least important person in the room.

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Shower Thoughts

You may start to think I'm a little obsessed with showers, but in fact I'm a little obsessed with everything.
Showers are a small protected space in the day. The requirements are simple as is the activity. You walk into the shower and a few minutes later you walk out warm, wet, happy, and cleaner. The act of washing is simple and repetitive. It requires very little thought, which clears the way for everything else. Showers put the lie to any notion that I am a single unified self. There are multitudes inside me.
Take this morning. I have been playing a lot of music and it is common for me to sing in the bathroom and shower. This morning I was singing "Summertime", the same verse over and over, but a jazzy scat version with lots of embellishment and some pushing of the harmony. As with much bathroom singing I thought I was doing a pretty good job of it and part of my mind started wandering to think about what it would be like to give a regular short weekly concert, maybe a half hour or so, at a very nice concert venue at Colorado State University. I would love to do this, but the University is quite closed off. I've pursued ways to work with the music school, but there are roadblocks and nothing has panned out. It would be really nice to bring in other musicians I have been playing with for this little non-existent concert. Oooh, for a long time I have thought it would be nice to find a reasonably accomplished tabla player to improvise with -- and flute/tabla music starts running through my head in along with "Summertime".
All this is going through my head as I am singing, taking off my robe, adjusting water temperature, and climbing in to the shower. After a minute enjoying the warm water, I stop singing. For the rest of the shower, and even now, "Summertime" is still floating through my head. It is a little musical background to everything else I am thinking and doing, but my mind moves over to thinking about this multi-processing going on and how I find it an interesting story, maybe I should write it up. Meanwhile I'm rinsing my little mesh body scrubber, washing my hair and starting to lather up. The lack of musical venues for me is running through my head as I re-imagine various schemes that I may or may not work on to secure spots and I'm idly thinking of pieces for these little short concerts. This is at the same time, I'm observing this mix of events and "Summertime" is still there, with variations, running through my head.
Is it any wonder that sometimes after having been in the shower for five minutes, I honestly cannot remember whether I have washed my hair or not?

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Climate Change: How Do We Know and Why Do We Care


Occasionally on social media when someone posts in opposition to the notion of human caused climate change I respond. No one's mind is ever changed. I contend that, at this point, if you doubt human caused climate change you are either woefully ignorant or have a world view that simply cannot admit the possibility. You will not change your mind because you cannot change your mind.

When I was a kid I read Isaac Asimov's "The Universe" and it fascinated me because he not only gave information about what scientists think about the structure of the universe, but also gave some notion of the evidence that led us to believe these things. I'm no Asimov, but I thought I might go through some of the ways that scientists have used to peer into the climate past and to project the future. Many of the papers that discuss these things are behind paywalls, so I'm going to rely on more public links. Click on the links only if you want more information. The sources I have used tend to provide references that you can explore for even more information.

In all of this: observations are limited, observations often include only a few locations on a very large planet, there are uncertainties in measurements, over long time spans continents drift ... Despite this, there are enough measurements using a variety of techniques and theoretical underpinnings so that the general picture is quite clear and compelling.

First there are the "How do we know" questions. The "how" of what we know of climate depends on the time frame.

Recent Times (hundreds of years)


For recent times we have direct measurements of weather. This includes temperature (air and sea) and precipitation. There are also direct measurements of longer term indicators like sea level (though sea level is an inference based on statistical averages of a large number of measurements). Vegetation records and blooming information also give information. We also have counts of the number of hurricanes...

Even simple measurements like temperature have complexities. Each temperature record is taken at a single time and place using a particular technique. Over time the surroundings change as do the methods of recording the change. A measurement may have been  taken in an open field in 1903 using a mercury thermometer. The same location today may be in the middle of an urban area with the temperature taken by a thermocouple.

The longest temperature record goes back to 1659 in Central England. It shows temperature for only about 400 years and only in a single area. Sea surface temperatures have been taken since the time of the US revolutionary war. Early ocean temperatures were measured by putting a thermometer in a bucket of water drawn from the ocean. Starting in the 1960s, temperatures were automatically recorded at the intake ports of large ships. More recently, buoys have been deployed to measure temperatures, but they differ in design and sensing methods.

The scarcity of data and differing techniques mean that adjustments and inferences have to be made to convert these individual observations into a coherent and meaningful world wide data set. For example, canvas buckets cool ocean water, insulated buckets less so. Measurements near a ship engine room tend to have warmer results. Luckily, when people publish data sets, they also publish the adjustments so that other people can check the assumptions, apply different adjustments, and check to see what the results are.

Individual observations indicate "weather" (more immediate) at a single location, but we are interested in climate (longer term) over the planet. To bridge the gap, scientists have created models and simulations. Modeling complex phenomena is difficult and tricky, but models can be checked against current and know past conditions to see how well they do. To cut to the chase, the models have gotten pretty good at simulation and predictions over time spans of decades. There are many large scale computer models for the climate (in the 10s, not the 100s or 1000s). This computer modeling work has been an ongoing effort for at least four decades. During this time period several things have occurred to increase the accuracy of the modeling. First, the computers of today are literally one million times faster and can handle a million times more data. That means simulations that used to take 11 days to run can now be run in one second. A year's simulation in the 1970s can be run in half an hour. Second, techniques of modeling have improved (smaller voxels at temperature boundaries, incorporation of aerosols from volcanos into the models, better ocean heat modeling...). Third, we are measuring a lot more by deploying more weather stations, ocean buoys, weather balloons....

http://www.ocean-sci.net/12/925/2016/
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/543546/why-climate-models-arent-better/
https://phys.org/news/2017-07-framework-accounts-conflicting-global-temperature.html

By comparing different indicators over time we can see if the measurement records tell a coherent story. If they don't, it indicates something wrong with the measurements or our understanding of the climate. Over the years, we have been able to create a theoretical understanding that pretty well corresponds to the observed record.

Over the near term, the last century or so, virtually all the data points in a single direction. The earth is warming pretty quickly. We can see this in measurements of air and ocean temperature, total volume of ice, earlier spring blooming, movement of habitats and migrations of animals ... The "hockey stick" graph of temperatures is real and correct.

https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3325.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large-scale_temperature_reconstructions_of_the_last_2,000_years

Thousands of Years


Each year a tree forms a new ring. The size of the ring provides an indication of temperature and moisture at the location where the tree grew. In locations where dead tree trunks are available, living trees form the initial line in a chain of trees. Patterns of thin and thick at the outer edges of a dead tree may match the inner patterns on a living tree so the tree ring timeline can be extended. There are places where we have a tree ring record up to 4000 years.

If the recent pattern of rings on a particular species of tree can be matched to the weather patterns in the local historical record, we can use this correlation to start constructing plausible past weather patterns. This gives a climate measure for the location.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/tree-ring

Coral has some of the same attributes as tree rings. Regular patterns of growth can be detected. Oxygen isotopes in coral layers can also be used as climate indicators. Uranium/Thorium ratios can be used to date the coral samples.

http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=4467119&fileOId=4467197

We can also look at changes in the landscape to see patterns of deposition that indicate climate. This includes evidence of glaciation, ancient sea levels, pollen in sediment...

Thousands to Millions of Years


All climate measurements must rely on something that is different between warm climates and cool climates. One thing we have gotten good at in the past century is measuring the relative quantities of different isotopes of elements. The chemical properties of an element largely depend on the number of protons in the atom (its atomic number), but the weight of the atom also depends on the number of neutrons. In some circumstances the weight makes a difference. Isotopes are elements with the same atomic number but different atomic weights.

One important link between temperature and isotopes comes from the water evaporation cycle. Most oxygen is O16, but some is O18, which contains two extra neutrons. Both O16 and O18 are stable. O18 requires slightly more energy to evaporate and also tends to rain out slightly sooner than O16. These processes occur today and can be measured. As the earth cools, more water is stored in glaciers and ice caps. This water evaporated then snowed onto the land. The O18 tends to rain out earlier (at lower latitudes) so the snow tends to be depleted in O18. As O16 enriched snow enters the ice caps, it leaves the ocean. That means the oceans tend to have slightly higher O18 levels when the earth is cooler. The same process is true for deuterium, a heavier isotope of hydrogen.

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/strat_dating/annual_layer_count/ice_core_dating/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_isotope_ratio_cycle

This gives us two complimentary ways to measure ancient temperatures. We can look at the O18/O16 ratios in ice cap cores. We can also measure ocean O18/O16 ratios in the ocean using sediments high in calcite (CaCO3). because the calcite was formed by microorganisms that got one of the calcite oxygen atoms from the sea water in which they lived, the sediment reflects the O18/O16 ratios when the organism lived.

The ice core data goes back at least 740,000 years. Sediment data can be used for a much longer time span (at least hundreds of millions of years).

Note that we have current confirmation of the theory and two different sources of data: ice and sediment. This gives the data some real credibility, particularly since the very recent data is confirmed by other means.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_isotope_ratio_cycle

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/temp/domec/domec.html

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hugh_Jenkyns/publication/252408787_New_oxygen_isotope_evidence_for_long-term_Cretaceous_climate_change_in_the_Southern_Hemisphere/links/571b621008ae6eb94d0d6405.pdf

Why does climate change?


Looking at the deduced climate over the past millions of years we can say pretty definitely that climate has changed drastically over time. The question of why is frightfully difficult. Moreover, small changes in one thing or another can, over time, create big changes in climate. The basic principle is that the temperature of the planet depends on its internal heat, the amount of energy entering the system (mostly from the sun) and the amount of heat leaving the planet (mostly reflected light). The earth's atmosphere acts as a blanket, keeping the earth warmer than it would be without the atmosphere.

The sun has day to day differences in output, 11 year cycles of sunspots and a long term trend (hundreds of millions of years) of increasing energy output. The earth's orbit changes as does its axis of tilt. Volcanos put large amounts of reflective particles into the atmosphere, reflecting more of the sun's energy into space. Snow and clouds reflect more light than land or ocean. Clouds block heat. In fact, water vapor and clouds are the most powerful heat trapping substances for the earth, accounting for about three quarters of all heat trapping.

https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_05/

The oceans have a huge thermal mass and there is large scale heat transport through the oceans and between the ocean and the air. Ocean currents carry much of this heat and transport depends on the positions of the landmass. Over eons continental drift can affect climate. The ocean circulation also depends on salt concentrations and large amounts of fresh water melting may interrupt planet wide ocean circulation. If planet wide ocean heat circulation is interrupted, there may be larger temperature differences between lower and higher latitudes. This may cause more snow to persist at higher latitudes and increase the reflectivity of the planet as a whole.

Scientists have been trying to tease the affects apart. The further back in time you go, the more difficult it becomes and the more speculative the conclusions.

Carbon Dioxide


This is the measure that has become controversial for political and monetary reasons. Despite the perceived controversy, we know a lot about the basic heat processes of the earth and there is no real controversy among the scientists who actually study climate. The physical response of CO2 to light is well known and can be easily measured. The effect of CO2 is to take infrared heading out of the planet and reflect some portion of it back in. This is not a huge effect, but part of it takes affect above the level of water vapor and provides another insulating layer for the planet.

The most immediate indicator of CO2 as a possible cause of temperature rises comes from a simple correlation over the past century.  Of course simple correlation means little to nothing, and over extremely long periods of time (hundreds of millions of years) the relationship between CO2 levels and temperature are tenuous at best. That said, in an extremely complex system it is difficult to find causes and effects. Our best hope is to look at recent conditions where we have more measurements and the ability to test hypotheses directly. For the recent past, CO2 as a driver is quite well established.

The affects of CO2 have been directly measured. On the land, direct measurements of the wavelengths captured by CO2 have been measured and found to be increasing in conjunction with the increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. The corresponding measurements from space show the opposite affect. As CO2 increases, the amount of light radiated by the planet in the range that CO2 absorbs goes down. That is, we have directly measured the greenhouse imbalance caused by increasing CO2.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation-intermediate.htm

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/02/25/co2-greenhouse-effect-increase/

https://www.eumetsat.int/cs/idcplg?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=pdf_conf_p50_s9_01_harries_v&allowInterrupt=1&noSaveAs=1&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleasedhttp://science.sciencemag.org/content/289/5477/270


https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691

Theoretical attempts to assign quantitative amounts to different drivers of temperature are rapidly maturing. These point to the same conclusion, in the current situation CO2 is the main driver of increasing global temperature.

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html

Why do We Care?


This section is a little different. Even if the climate is changing, why should we care? After all, climate has changed drastically in the past and life on earth has survived. Even faced with mass extinctions, life has recovered. Devastating changes in climate have set the stage for new types of life to thrive and become dominant.

The earth and life on earth will survive climate change. Technological human society may not. In any number of areas, we are currently engaged in unsustainable practices. As Herbert Stein pointed out "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." Our human life spans are relatively short and it is easy perceive the world we live in now as not much different than the world we were born in. Over spans of centuries it is easy to see the drastic changes.

Because the world is large and has been around a long time, we can unsustainably use some resources for a very long time. We probably have centuries of fossil fuels left. A few centuries is a very short time when we consider the millions of years it took to accumulate these reserves, but for humans it means we don't have to worry about having enough fossil fuels for many generations of human life.

When agriculture emerged there were probably fewer than twenty million people on earth. We hit the one billion mark around 1800. It took 123 years to get to two billion. Currently we are adding a billion each couple decades. This population increase requires a concomitant increase in resource use. When the European settlers first reached North America cod were so numerous that it was joked you could walk across the ocean on the backs of cod. In 1992 the cod fishery collapsed and it was estimated that it's biomass was one percent of its earlier levels.

When European settlers got to the U.S. Pacific Northwest the size and expanse of the forests were breathtaking. It seemed a resource that could not be exhausted. The forest is still vast, but satellite images show the incredible level of human exploitation.

There is good reason to say that we have entered a new geologic era, the anthropocene, where the dominant force shaping the planet is humans. Humans now move more earth than natural geologic processes. All of the worlds great aquifers are being emptied for agriculture. Many of them will cease to be productive within a couple of generations. Biologists tell us we are on the brink of a sixth great extinction of species. That is, an event on the scale of the extinction of the dinosaurs. This time it is being caused by human intervention in the environment.

Humans are an extremely adaptable species, but we rely on the web of life around us as well as incredibly complex and fragile systems of technology and trade. Rapid changes in either ecology or collapse of technological webs may exceed our ability to respond while maintaining our technological society. We are already seeing large scale human misery, but many people refuse to acknowledge there is even a problem. We are headed toward a world wide failure of systems that is unprecedented in human existence.

For me, the terrible part is that, collectively, we understand what is happening and if we take action we can enter a golden age of human existence and restored ecological health. We know many of the problems and we know some of the solutions. For example, E.O. Wilson has made the excellent suggestion that we set aside roughly half the earth as a preserve outside of human intervention. The preserve must be connected and contain many of the most biologically productive areas. This seems like a large and undoable task but, surprisingly, his analysis shows that it is not. The simple act of making contraception readily available to everyone (with no coercion) is probably sufficient to keep human population in check. Movement away from burning carbon is not only do-able it is probably inevitable for cost reasons, yet the fossil fuel industries fight tooth and nail to keep the burning going. World wide, democracy and concern for the average citizen is diminishing while power is being concentrated in the hands of people and institutions whose main concern is preserving and expanding their wealth and control.


https://www.amazon.com/Half-Earth-Our-Planets-Fight-Life/dp/1631492527/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1499277232&sr=8-1&keywords=half+earth+e.o.+wilson

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

https://qz.com/871907/2016-was-the-year-solar-panels-finally-became-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-just-wait-for-2017/

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/05/535596277/all-new-volvo-models-will-be-electric-or-hybrid-starting-in-2019

https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/about-inequality/impacts


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Colorado State University and its On Campus Stadium


A few disclaimers and clarifications before I begin. I have been watching the CSU on-campus stadium saga for some time and I am currently a member of the joint CSU/Fort Collins Stadium Advisory Group formed to mitigate any untoward effects of the new stadium on its neighbors.

This essay is NOT connected to the advisory group in any way and reflects, in its rambling way, my own opinions about the stadium process and university funding. All of my analysis and speculations are strictly that, analysis and speculations. They are based on the best information I have and I try to be factually correct, but I have no special knowledge.

Finally, I have found that all the people associated with CSU and the City of Fort Collins appear to be acting in ways they feel will genuinely improve, in the medium term, the university and the city.

LARGE SCALE FORCES ON CSU

Universities in general are in trouble. The reason, as is often the case, is money. State funding of the higher education system is drying up. There are four main sources of money for higher education:
 - Student Tuition and Fees
 - Faculty Research Grants
 - State Government Funding
 - Alumni and Large Donor Giving/Endowments

A couple of major forces related to funding of the university system are at work. The first is consolidation of wealth and power.

Astoundingly, wealth distribution in societies throughout the world and throughout time has followed a single pattern, a Pareto distribution. http://colin-quodlibet.blogspot.com/2010/09/wealth-distribution-and-work-week.html.  The Pareto distribution is a self-similar curve where quantities are concentrated. For example, the top 10% of the population might control 70% of the wealth. If you take all of the wealth of that top 10%, the top 10% of those richer folks will have 70% of the wealth of the rich folks. Throughout the world, this basic curve can be used to describe wealth distributions. The differences are in the constants. In a highly egalitarian society, the top 10% may have 50% of the wealth. In a kleptocracy, the top 10% may have 95% of the wealth. For the past couple generation's wealth in the US has become increasingly concentrated in fewer hands. In 2012 the top 10% in the US had about 76% of all wealth.

The same concentration of wealth applies to institutions. There are an increasing number of college students. Before World War II, the entire university system was smaller relative to the population and fewer people received higher education. The system expanded after WWII to include a much larger percentage of the population. This was extremely successful economically. We met the need for additional seats by making existing institutions larger rather than increasing the number of institutions. In the 1970's the average size of a state university was probably about 20,000 students. In the past decade or so we have seen this increase to 30,000 or 35,000 students. Hand in hand with this increase in institution size there has been a growing concentration of alumni giving. The lion's share of giving is going to a smaller and smaller set of universities. In 2015 about 30% of the all donations went to just 20 schools. The more successful graduates you have, the more likely your university will move up on the alumni giving list. Within each school there is a smaller and smaller set of donors who give the lion's share of all donations, and hence have a larger and larger voice in the direction of the institution.

A second force is cultural. In the U.S. we tend to view all aspects of culture through the lens of commerce. This has become even more pronounced over the last 30 years. The primacy of commerce extends to all aspects of culture. Even religion has corners, like the "prosperity gospel" based on prayer as commerce. Government is seen as inherently inefficient (bad) because it does not operate in a marketplace.  This has become accepted to such an extent that we have starved every civic institution that is not directly involved in commerce. Prestige and power are associated with wealth. In effect, we are creating a new feudal society where wealthy merchants have become the noble class.

Universities are not exempt from this cultural lens. Every few years a drumbeat starts announcing that college graduates are not ready for the workplace. That is, a university education is viewed as job training. This push to commercialize everything has also hit university administration. Universities are increasingly run as a business. This seems to be inevitable. Basic management training in the US is based on the business model. There are specializations for non-profit organizations, but the models of organization, motivation, and feedback are based on the current business model fads. Along with this comes a top-down approach to management with power and money concentrated in as few hands as possible. The university president acts as a CEO. As such, he or she is charged the operation of the institution and all true decision making is made at the top. An effective CEO will listen to advisors, but this is more to counteract opposition and build consensus than to alter direction.

As a business, the university must do what it can to satisfy its customers. It competes against other, similar institutions. To be financially sound, each university must turn a profit so it can support current operations and expand in the future. In this view, the funding sources can be viewed as customers and, like a successful business, the institution should be customer focused.

Taking each customer in turn:

Students are ostensibly the raison d'être of the university but not all students are alike. Because they pay higher tuition, out of state students are more desirable, and CSU is competing against universities in the student's home state. For marketing reasons, higher achieving students are also more valuable. The product that CSU is marketing to students is the experience on campus. To satisfy these students, the experience should be comfortable and stimulating. That is one of the reasons so much money has been spent on improving dorms, the recreation center, and the student union.


Faculty research grants serve several functions. They fund labs, faculty, and graduate students. Grants serve a marketing function by increasing the international visibility and prestige of the organization. Grants follow grants. The more grants a university has, the more likely other grants will follow. There is an easy way to incentivize faculty to bring in more grants. You simply measure the size of the grants and reward the faculty who bring in the most. In terms of grants, each department is either a profit center or a loss. Sometimes unprofitable departments simply have to be funded (English, Art...) but they can be put under pressure in the normal ways to be more efficient. For example: increasing the number of adjunct faculty, automating instruction, increasing class size ...

While still a comparatively small portion of research grants, corporate funding of research is becoming more important. This leaves the university exposed to pressure to support the funding corporations. See the recent scandal at Brown University. https://www.aaup.org/article/academic-freedom-and-corporate-university#.V6sczJMrKgQ

When you hear that CSU is a research institution, be aware that this a sales pitch to both students (we are on the cutting edge) and to grant organizations (we can effectively use your money). The goal may be research, but only in so far as that research provides funding either by attracting more grants or attracting more students. Research tends to be concentrated in areas that might be commercially viable in a decade or so. Too long for strictly commercial enterprises, but not pure research untied to commerce.

Because it is a funding source for the school, state government can be considered a customer of the university. In this sense, lobbying is "marketing" to the government. State government is in a rather unique position because it owns the institution even if it doesn't provide much support. In Colorado, the state government has a number of constraints that limit the amount of money it can spend on higher education. State government is thus the worst kind of customer: cheap, demanding, impossible to dump.

Finally, there is alumni and large donor giving. Donor funding is discretionary and based on whim. First you have to find the wealthy, then you have to persuade them that your institution is worth funding. If wealthy alumni feel the institution has helped them in their life or helped a community they care about, it will be worth funding. If a donor has a particular interest that can be furthered by funding, they will give. As an example, the equine department(s) at CSU have greatly benefitted from donor funding.

ON CAMPUS STADIUM

As far as I can discern there is very little overt corruption in Fort Collins. I find city employees well educated and thoughtful. They value information and when making decisions they look for other comparable situations and try to find best practices. The city as a whole is conservative in the sense that it likes the comfortable and conventional. We try to do the same as everybody else, just do it a little better.

Under Tony Frank, CSU is following a similar strategy. I think the CSU administration is well aware of the forces shaping the university system and is doing its conventional best to make sure that CSU ends up large enough and well enough endowed to survive the coming storms in higher education.

Tony Frank was made president of CSU in 2008. He has spearheaded the largest CSU expansion in decades, perhaps ever. The last major expansion was part of the post WWII restructuring of higher education. This is a perfect time for expansion largely because interest rates are at historic lows. The Board of Regents has viewed Tony Frank’s tenure positively and in 2015 he was made chancellor of the CSU system, which includes multiple campuses throughout the state.

During his tenure Frank devoted attention to all CSUs customers. Increasing enrollment brings in increasing tuition and fees. Much of the capital improvement money has been spent on the student tuition leg of the funding sources, improving and updating dorms, the rec center and the student union. Dorms have been improved. Faculty is aligned to the goal of bringing in more research grants. In the past few years a concerted campaign has aimed, successfully, at bringing in more donor money. Let's not talk about state government.

Sometime around 2011 Tony Frank made a marketing decision that both out of state student enrollment and large donor giving would be improved with a more visible and successful athletic program including an on-campus football stadium. Let me make this clear. I think the on campus stadium was a marketing decision made around 2011 before any public deliberation. Tony Frank as university president chose to build an on campus stadium. The only question afterwards was how to best implement that decision.

In December 2011 Jack Graham was hired as Athletic Director to implement this marketing plan. Within two months a "feasibility study" was started for a new stadium. The study was duly produced and in late 2012 Tony Frank recommended a new stadium to the CSU Board. This was followed by two years of PR bungling.

The stadium was popular with rich CSU donors and the athletics department. It was popular with no one else. The faculty members I have spoken with think the stadium is idiotic. The student body is divided, but largely opposed. Within the city a group, "Save our Stadium" formed to oppose the new stadium.

CSU and the city created a committee to look at stadium impacts. I had the bad fortune to watch one of these meetings on cable television. Representatives from CSU and the architecture/construction firms simply refused to answer any questions. My recollection of one exchange is: "How tall will the stadium be?" "We don't have an exact answer for that. We'll try to find out some information and get it to you later."

There is a real science to getting buy in for an existing decision. The stadium outreach violated many of the rules and it failed. One basic rule is to never give opponents the notion that the basic decision can be changed. Rather than creating support, the outreach created resentment and opposition. Fund raising proceeded but slower than hoped.

In a bold move, on August 8 of 2014 Frank simply fired his athletic director, Jack Graham. Within four months a new decision making process looking at alternatives was created and completed. The committee was given four alternatives and chose two of those as most viable. In the end, Tony Frank modified the options and chose to go with his original 2011 decision. A new stadium owned and operated by CSU would be built on campus.

Ground was broken and, in agreement with the city, a new Stadium Advisory Committee was created. This committee has the limited scope of trying to improve the operation of the already approved stadium. CSU has bent over backwards to be transparent, listen to the neighbors and not make the same mistakes twice. The stadium will be quieter and less bright than it might have been because CSU listened and spent money to satisfy its neighbors.

ANY COMPLAINTS?

If my analysis is correct, all of this seems rational and perhaps even inevitable given the cultural environment. There is only one real casualty, the university itself.

There are probably as many opinions on the nature and purpose of a university as there are people. I am giving my point of view as someone who spent a lot of time as a student, both undergraduate and graduate. I am a parent of four children who graduated from college. I am currently owner of a business that caters to the university crowd. When my children started college I thought a lot about what I hoped for them to learn in their higher education http://colin-quodlibet.blogspot.com/2008/05/what-to-learn-in-college.html.

Historically, universities have been self-perpetuating institutions based on both educating societal elites and allowing intellectuals the freedom to advance human knowledge. I contend that the institutions have been successful in inverse proportion to their integration into the commercial structure of the society. There are exceptions. Land grant colleges in the United States have focused on practical farm research and, along with farm extension programs, have revolutionized agriculture in the U.S. multiple times. On the whole though, the most successful research programs have been those where the goal is pure knowledge. The application of that knowledge has not been the concern of the school or the professors.

It is on the science side where commercial results are most immediately apparent, but the academic developers of calculus, differential geometry, physics (classical, relativistic, and quantum), chemistry, evolution, and genetics have been concerned with basic understanding the world. All of these areas, which underlie so much of our commerce, were created without any possible awareness of commercial applications. Academic competition, jealousy, and infighting is as old as the institutions. Holding research private and patenting academic discoveries is relatively new. These developments potentially make some needed money for the institutions, but hinder long-term human advancement. Einstein once said, "I refuse to make money out of my science. My laurel is not for sale like so many bales of cotton."

On the education side, particular skills have always been less important than the ability to understand and adapt to the world. It is important to have a deep understanding or skill in something or other, but the importance comes from the fact that once you have one deep skill, it is easier to acquire a second or third. When the WWII veterans came out of college, they created a vital society
There were many factors involved: monetary policy, size of cohort, delay in starting families... Higher education helped the veterans by giving them particular knowledge and skills, but also because they understood more broadly and could see further than the less educated.

The emphasis on running the university as a business enhances funding and fosters efficiency. It also ties research to commercial results and chokes off longer-term thinking. It reduces the quality of education by increasing class sizes and putting more responsibility for basic education onto the least experienced members of the faculty community. If you read the Feynman lectures on physics one of the most illuminating aspects is the sheer clarity of mind and broadness of vision that is apparent from simply being in the presence of well educated genius. Fewer undergraduates experience this as we put more graduate students, adjunct faculty, and junior faculty members in charge of teaching.

Big college athletics serves no research or educational purpose. Very few students participate in the marquee sports and those students are largely segregated from the rest of the campus. Every dispassionate study of finances shows that the programs never pay for themselves. Many people get rich off college athletics, but the only function of big athletics within the university is marketing to two audiences: modern day barons who can contribute to endowments and potential out of state students who bring more revenue when they enroll.

The direct appeal to the barons is obvious in the design of the CSU stadium. Roughly one quarter of the facility is set aside for luxury accommodations some served by a separate elevator to keep the moneyed from the hoi polloi. The more you pay the university, the better your experience will be: better seats, more amenities and better parking. Students sit in the cheap seats across from their betters. In addition to watching, cheering, and identifying with the university, they can stare and wish for riches that will enable them to join the barons. Those with money can use a display of wealth as a way to court influence within their circles. This is a standard feature of modern spectator sports. In the Stadium Advisory Group some members have suggested that the prices are too low and that raising prices to the maximum level possible will make the most desirable spots a better way to display wealth and influence. It will also help pay for the stadium.

The choice of football as the main sport to market is obvious, trite, and tragic. It is obvious because of the popularity of the sport. It is trite, because every institution trying to make it to the top tier is doing exactly the same thing. It is tragic for a number of reasons. The first is consolidation of sports money is already occurring. Fewer institutions are getting larger and larger shares of the pie. That means that many second tier schools, perhaps CSU, will fail in their attempts to cover stadium costs by using sports to lure out of state students and donor money.

The choice of football is also tragic because it plays to the worst part of human nature and actually hinders the education of students. Football is a purely spectator sport. People feel kinship based on team affiliation, but they do not do anything to actually improve themselves or the team (except spending money). In football, the identification comes at the expense of the athletes themselves. The vast majority of athletes, even at the top ranks of university athletics, do not make a career of their sports. CSU makes a genuine attempt through its academic programs to support these young people who are trying to get an education at the same time as having a physically demanding, unpaid, full time athletic job. Time after time we have seen in college athletics that as the money pressures rise, so does the temptation to cut corners and win at the expense of the athletes. With what we have discovered about Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, the current form of the game cannot continue for more than a generation or so. The fans are rabid, the money is great, but more and more parents will stop allowing their children to risk brain injury to play. This will dry the pool of available talent.

Learning how to take care of ourselves and others is an important part of becoming an educated functioning adult. If you look at people in their forties, fifties, and beyond you will find healthy adults who run, swim, bike, play tennis, golf, baseball, basketball, racquetball, ski, and snowboard. You do not find football players. The activity is simply not consonant with maintaining health. The notion of spectator sports instead of participatory sports is at antithetical to the core of the university missions.

PEOPLE MONEY AND SKILLS

One of my rules of thumb is: If you want a great organization, don't put the money men/women in charge. In any organization, the money must work out. If you put the money men/women in charge, only the money works out. Everything else, including the reasons the organization exists, suffers.

As a software professional, my career has centered on new product development. Often this is as a consultant to large organizations that wish to update their technology. The obvious reason to bring in outsiders is to get specialized expertise, but there is a cultural reason as well. People who are charged with maintaining and incrementally improving existing systems develop a conservative mindset. Many people charged with operational systems cannot cope with the uncertainty of new development. Conversely, many people in new development cannot cope with being confined to meticulously tracking potential problems.

The same kind of cultural dynamic probably occurs within the university. The skills necessary for the maintenance and gradual change of a university are different from the skills needed for major expansions. Major expansions require expensive and risky decisions that are made quickly. It is inherently a gamble on the future. The decision makers have to create a political environment where people feel involved but the pace of change is not slowed or halted.

In big college athletics the game is to quickly build a team and win more than you lose. As a coach, you either win or you are fired. If you win, you can leave and move up the coaching ladder to a bigger program with more resources. If you get fired, you move down the ladder.

In new software product development, once the job is done, the excitement subsides and the developers most instrumental in getting things done quickly move on. They are invested in the problem solving and the building, not the end result or the institution. The same is probably true for people involved in university expansion. The thrill is building the physical assets, creating the winning team. When that is completed, the tendency is to move on to the next place that needs this type of expansion.

The average tenure of a university president is about 8.5 years. Athletic directors last about 5 years. Football coaches, 4 years. For all these positions, the professional track usually moves the person from institution to institution. It is rare that these professionals "grew up" in the institution where he or she is president/athletic director/coach. Because their job tenure is much shorter than a career, people in these professions have to be more concerned with the job and their personal progress rather than the institution. Contrast this with faculty who tend to marry their institution and may very well stay with the same school for their entire professional life.

The highest paid people at CSU are associated with big budget sports (men's football and basketball coaches) and university administrators. These areas take increasing amounts of the overall labor budget. That is, we are paying the most for the people whose ties to the institution are weakest.

Following conventional wisdom gives a conventional strategy. Everyone following the same strategy competes for talent, driving up prices. When institutional loyalty is low, a larger paycheck and personal advancement are even greater lures. In addition, people naturally value their own work and value those who are like them. Administrators are likely to pay administrators more.

The end result of the current strategy is to invest large amounts of money into activities (athletics, creature comforts, administration) that are, at best, peripheral to the core of the university mission. The focus on money and business related metrics undermine faculty morale and lose the long-term research focus of the institution. The course may be inevitable in a culture based on business that does not value learning or education except as it helps commerce. The course may be inevitable, but it is also regrettable.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Creating Social Engagement

As the number of mass shootings continues to climb I, like everyone else, will put in my two cents about causes and possible solutions.

I do not believe the problem in the US is one of guns. It is a problem of culture and will not end until the culture changes. Luckily, culture is the sum of what each of us thinks, does, and says. That means we can change it by changing ourselves. This personally daunting task becomes easier as we see our friends and neighbors modeling the behavior. Each of us contains a multitude of selves and we just need to let the best of ourselves come out, repress the worst in ourselves, and reward the better actions of others.

In this post I won't be posting much in the way of references, but I believe that my argument is well supported by the evidence. I am looking at trends, not universals.

First, some words on "safe" and "comfortable". It is ingrained that these words belong together. In a recent survey on traffic in my city people were asked to prioritize the importance of a number of items. One of them was "Streets should be safe and comfortable". In fact, safety and comfort do not go together. If people feel too comfortable driving, they increase their speed which, off the highway, makes the street less safe. In the same way, we often feel most comfortable when we do not engage strangers, but we are social creatures and expanding our social circles makes us better people.

Violence against strangers tends to be perpetrated by people who are socially isolated. Social isolation is defined as a lack of contact with other people and it is deadly in a social animal like humans. The opposite of social isolation is social engagement. Increased social engagement makes us more capable in dealing with people in a variety of situations. It gives us greater control of our environment and makes us more aware of what is going on around us.

Here are some ways we can improve our culture and ourselves. Some are simpler than others. All require some effort, at least at the beginning.

You know that weird person you have noticed? The one that makes you a little uncomfortable? Next time you pass him/her, say hello. You need not converse, just acknowledge their existence as a fellow human being and move along. After a while you might make some small talk or even have a real discussion, but that is not a requirement. It is not likely, but eventually that person could turn into your best friend.

Join or start a group. Almost two hundred years ago Alexis de Tocqueville wrote: "Americans of all ages, all stations of life, and all types of disposition are forever forming associations." Prove him right. Join a book club, a bowling league, a soccer team, a bicycle club ... It doesn't have to require much time. Book clubs generally meet about once a month and you don't even have to read every book.

When you converse, listen to the other person. In general, allow them to have the last word. Listening does not signify assent. When it comes right down to it, you probably disagree with everyone around you on one topic or another. That doesn't mean you have to shun them. However... if someone's views are truly vile, feel free to call them on it. Tell the racist "I'm sorry, I could not disagree more. I think your beliefs are without support and if you act on them I will work against you." Again, this is hard, but with practice you will get better at it. If someone seems like they might be dangerous, report them.

If someone asks you for help, provide it. There are, of course, requests and circumstances that make this unwise or infeasible, but make "yes" your default answer. You can take this a step further. If someone looks like they need help, offer it. A little harder is a change of attitude. Be more concerned that everyone who needs help gets it and less concerned that someone who is "undeserving" may be abusing the system.

Our built environment is often badly constructed for social interaction. Do not support this. In choosing a home we often look at the inside amenities. This is important, but don't forget the outside. Is there somewhere outside, facing the street, where you and a couple friends can sit down and watch the world go by. If not, is there a way to easily construct a sitting spot? If a home fails this simple test, don't buy or rent it. Inside, is there a room where you are likely to spend time that has windows on the street? If not, you will have no opportunity to get to know the daily life of your street. It is harder to integrate into a neighborhood if you never see your neighbors. On a nice evening, think about walking around the block. As you go around, say hello to folks. Ask them about their day. If you cannot do this comfortably or if no one is ever around to say hello, you have a bad neighborhood. Try to fix it or move.

Vote to make your community better even if it means increased taxes. If there is a ballot measure to build/improve schools, support it. More parks and improved public spaces, support it. Support it especially if it goes to other folks who have less than you. Send your support to the lowest income schools and neighborhoods. Make sure poor kids have good parks and athletic fields. Even better, make sure your community works to integrate people of all incomes and backgrounds into the same neighborhoods. If, as is common, your school board sets the boundaries of schools to keep rich and poor separate, confront the candidates and ask them to change. A unit of neighborhoods is the boundary for the local elementary school. If a school does not have a mix of incomes, bus the rich kids in. Better is to build more lower income housing throughout the town. This seems scary, but all the evidence shows it makes everyone better and safer.

Underlying all of this is an acknowledgement that we are all people. We differ in backgrounds and in how we think society should work. Communication and engagement teaches us about each other, how to get along, and how much we are alike. We exist in a biological ecosystem, but also in a social ecosystem. Make your ecosystems stronger by encouraging diversity and strong connections.



Friday, September 12, 2014

Economists Are So Cute (but so are badgers )

Economists would be so cute in their naiveté if they weren't so destructive. The other day I was reading an article (oddly, on umpires and the strike zone) and I ran across this quote "As economist Edward Lazear has shown, organizations become more productive when a job well done is rewarded with extra money and dumb mistakes are punished." The referenced article is "Incentive Contracts" http://www.nber.org/papers/w1917. The paper is from 1986. Normally I would not bother with something so old, but it did get a reference from the recent article.

Actually, Lazear does not show much of anything, but he does survey various incentive schemes. There are a variety of equations, including a partial differential equation based on nonsense, that are not used for anything other than to give the article a patina of respectability.

Here is my summary. Workers are lazy and in order to get them to do anything we have to provide proper incentives. The goal of the incentives is to increase worker effort. We can base incentives on effort or on productivity. Oftentimes it is difficult to get information on effort and productivity, so we may have to adjust labor contracts for the best available information. Oh, by the way, we also have to think about quality.

The general notion of incentive is quickly replaced by money and the article only discusses wages. The reduction of "incentive" to "money" is a common simplification in economics. Money has the nice quality that it is easily counted and fits nicely in equations. Most people work to support themselves and their family, but over two thirds of workers also work to "Feel useful/productive". http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2009/09/03/iii-attitudes-toward-work/

The main payment schemes discussed are for sharecroppers, piece rate workers, and hourly wage workers. There is also mention of the value of pitting workers against each other so the most productive workers are disproportionally rewarded.

It is demonstrably true that compensation and incentives are important in the work place. The notions in the article are worth thinking about, but not within the framework presented. The intellectual framework for the pretended quantitative notions in the article is based on demonstrably false premises. The article include such gems as:
"Incentive contracts arise because individual (sic) love leisure. In order to
induce them to forgo some leisure, or put alternatively, to put forth efort,
some form of compensation must be ofered (sic)" 
This statement is true only when the work or the workplace involved is dehumanizing. Habitat for Humanity and other non-profit groups that rely on volunteers are simple counterexamples. Perhaps we should forgive the academic who thinks about work in terms of factory piece work and sharecroppers for simplifying the human condition to a form of slavery where monetary carrots and sticks are the only way to motivate.

Another quote gives the rosy view that the workers inevitably get the rewards of increased  output.
"Thus, (2) merely says that output, Q, must be paid entirely to the worker otherwise another firm could steal the worker away by paying more." 
Beware of arguments based on this type of logical sounding statement that bears no resemblance to reality. Simple evidence is the stagnation of wages over the past couple decades despite large increases in productivity. I did a couple blog posts on productivity. The most relevant one for this context is http://colin-quodlibet.blogspot.com/2010/09/if-we-are-to-believe-productivity.html.

The sad thing is that employers often believe this nonsense and instead of providing a more pleasant and humane workplace, they turn it into an unpleasant, metrics driven, competitive hell-hole.